Overconfident, unmotivated and at the end of the day, it’s all about that base
I don’t kick dogs or losers when they’re down, even doucheb*gs like Donald Trump.
And, I was under the impression this race was all but over.
It looked like Bill Clinton was about to fire up the old Tinder account and Hillary was already finding a way to offshore her money.
All but done. I wondered if Bill still has a key to the Oval Office humidor?
Until late last week.
That’s when I sat down for lunch with a pollster friend of mine. He’s been busy as hell with congressional polls, gubernatorial polls, senate polls, and national polls. The GOP is a big client and my buddy is running numbers every which way he can.
Now the first thing he told me was quite surprising.
Apparently, the numbers suggest no one gives a flying f**k about morality issues. The daily claims of sexual assaults by Trump and the rehashing of Bill Clinton’s indiscretions are not moving his numbers.
Instead, the numbers ARE being moved by things like immigration, the wall, terrorism, and the economy.
It’s beyond puzzling. Donald Trump’s behaviour reminds me of everything I hated about high school. Asshole bullies treating people like crap to satisfy some sick need for attention and adulation. I also firmly believe he’s a misogynistic pig.
On the other hand, I believe the Clintons have no place on the moral high ground. Bill Clinton hurt women, and Hillary accepted it and did her best to beat back the scandals. She was an accomplice, and no better than he was.
Trump may be a fool, but this election is not over. It’s not even close to over and that explains the daily assaults on Trump by a seemingly absent Clinton (but she’s a healthy 68 we’re told). North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio are all within the margin of error.
You see, national polls are deceiving. When Don Lemon smiles his indignant smile and proclaims Clinton is up by nine points nationally, it’s a little disingenuous. It’s not the popular vote that wins. America decides its leader based on the antiquated electoral college system. An ass-backwards way of electing people. So when a poll samples in New York, California is easily swayed and tilts inaccurately.
Even scarier my pollster friend tells me that Trump has not fallen below 43 percent nationally—ever. That’s his base. A guaranteed number. It will never budge and it is full of voters that are pissed off and intending to vote.
Clinton, on the other hand, may need to worry.
Polls show her vote in key areas is soft. You see, Clinton owns the millennials and the minority blocks with off-the-charts projections.
But the reality is black and Latino voters are not as energized by Hillary as they were by Obama. If Barack Obama was James Brown, Hillary Clinton is Lawrence Welk. She has no link to those communities. She’s not a source for change or inspiration that Obama was in 2008. There is no guarantee voters will show up to the ballot box for Hillary.
As for millennials, they are the second largest voting block in America. But the thing is, these aren’t your grandparent’s Democrats. They are not party aligned. They support people, not parties—just ask Bernie Sanders (hint, he’s not a Democrat, seriously, no shit). Some might vote, some might not, some might stay home and get high.
The media has all but assured Clinton a landslide win. Mix a pinch of arrogance and overconfidence with those painfully long voting lines in Florida and Ohio and you now have a reason to worry that November 8 might be a longer night than most expect.
There is a reason Clinton’s team has not eased up despite her lead. This may also be the reason Trump seems unfazed by it all.
Because this race is far from over.
Clinton should and will likely win. But she might not. Just be careful who you blame if she loses.
As H. L. Mencken said, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
In this election, America will get the leader they deserve.